Topic of the month:
End of the Ukraine transit

02|2025

End of the Ukraine transit

Publication date: 04/02/2025
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The Ukraine transit ended on 1 January 2025. There was no panic. By the end of January, the stop was almost forgotten. In this edition’s Topic of the Month, I try to follow the effects of the transit stop on gas flows and prices and how the missing volumes were compensated. The event was overshadowed by a phase of cold weather. Both effects led to significantly rising prices in January and a sharp depletion of storage facilities in the EU member states.

On 21 January, another lesson was learned concerning the consequences of state intervention in markets. On that day, THE presented the design of strategic filling instruments at a workshop organised by BDEW. My first reaction was: At last! The presentation was long overdue. But the reaction on the trading markets was fierce. The publication was interpreted by many market participants as a clear signal that government intervention to ensure the refilling of storage facilities in the summer was now clearly to be expected. Summer 25 was immediately bought and Winter 25 sold. The spread between the two contracts doubled. There was a general shaking of heads among market participants at the way the announcement was made. However, as I will report, THE is not responsible for the mismanagement of information.

Portrait von Dr. Heiko Lohmann

Unterschrift von Dr. Heiko Lohmann

Dr. Heiko Lohmann
Freelancer

E-Mail +49 30 8824005


Topic of the month: End of the Ukraine transit

Russian gas stopped flowing through Ukraine on 1 January at 6:00 a.m. Central European Time. Gazprom Export announced that morning that the company was, from both a legal and technical viewpoint, unable to provide gas for transit through Ukraine. The end of transit occurred without much noise. There were two exceptions to this:

• In the final days of December, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico tried to exert pressure on Ukraine and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ensure that Ukraine would allow transit to continue. In January, Mr Fico continued to agitate for the resumption of transit.

• The Moldovan province of Transnistria has been cut off from its gas supply since 1 January. What is somewhat absurd about this is that the province is "renegade", wants to become independent from Moldova and is basically seeking to join Russia. But perhaps it is less absurd at a second glance as the inhabitants of the province blame the Moldovan government for their pain, and hence tensions intensify in the province. At the end of December, Mr Fico threatened to stop exporting electricity to Ukraine. In January, he then wanted to treat Ukrainian refugees in Slovakia less favourably and reduce funding for their care.

 

Portrait von Gregor Renker
Gregor Renker
Key Account Manager

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