Topic of the month:
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
In this edition, the topic of the month is about a topic I have had in mind for some time: “Green hydrogen”. For a number of market participants, hydrogen that is offered carbon free may be an important pillar of future energy systems. Others think it is ridiculous as an entirely new infrastructure is needed. That this is not the case is one of the results from my report. Another interesting aspect was that “green hydrogen” can be produced in very different ways. In the current German discussion about sector coupling, one immediately thinks of “wind-hydrogen” from electrolysis. Gas producers think more about producing hydrogen from methane. Statoil is focussing on the traditional steam reforming process and the storage of CO2. Gazprom and others think that methane pyrolysis is the more efficient technology. This is not a technical publication. But the involvement of the gas producer shows that they are thinking about a post-carbon world. This may also increase our downstream options.
Market trends
Groningen production
On April 18,BNetzA organised the third Forum Marktraumumstellung (market region conversion) in Bonn. Congestion occurred during the forum not for L-gas but for coffee supplies. “We can’t offer you a coffee after lunch because our budget is too tight,” Achim Zerres said during his opening remarks. He is head of the authority’s energy department and moderated the workshop. The reason for the coffee “crisis”: The new German government has just started work and was not yet able to approve a regular budget for 2018. Therefore, BNetzA as a government agency is only allowed to make indispensible spending. A coffee to avoid the participants dozing after lunch is not indispensible (but morning and afternoon coffee). “I have no further terrible messages,” said Stefan Rolle, taking up the issue. Mr Rolle is head of the ministry for economics and energy’s (BMWi) security of supply unit. His task was to report about the latest proposals of the Dutch government for the Groningen production cap and the likely impact on Germany. His conclusion here in advance: The situation is unpleasant but manageable.
Market development
Shell LNG Outlook
Also already at the end of February, Shell published its second LNG Outlook. This publication thinks the outlook is worth reading as it provides the facts about supply and demand developmentin a comprehensive and well organised form. The key message Shell wants to send with this latest outlook is: If no investment is made soon in new liquefaction capacity, there will be an LNG supply gap in the middle of the 2020s at the latest. For ener|gate Gasmarkt , the forecasting errors for the demand of LNG-importing countries is the more exciting information from the report.
In total, imports grew 30 per cent more than expected. China was one of the countries where figures were much higher than expected. LNG imports increased by 40 per cent compared to 2016. In the 2017 outlook, Shell was very reluctant about a potential LNG glut. The latest analysis emphasises that reluctance.
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